THE U.S. AIR FORCE PILOT SHORTAGE
The United States Air Force (USAF) is several years into a major effort to fix an alarming pilot shortage. Despite these efforts, Air Force leaders admit that the situation has not improved and, in fact, may have gotten worse, with the pilot shortage further compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated interruptions in training. Since 2017, the Air Force has faced a shortfall of roughly 2,100 pilots, 10% of the pilots needed for full execution of the National Defense Strategy. The pilot shortage is created at both ends of the input/output spectrum, partially due to an inadequate number of new pilots passing through the training pipeline, and partially the result of failing to retain enough skilled pilots – largely caused by combat fatigue and lucrative commercial airline offers. In 2017, Secretary Heather Wilson, the 24th Secretary of the Air Force, and General David L. Goldfein, the 21st Chief of Staff of the Air Force warned that the pilot shortage had swelled to a point that had the potential to “break the force”. In March 2020, senior Air Force and Space Force leaders collectively agreed that due to the short supply of pilots globally, and an expected increase in demand for their skillset, “recruiting, developing and retaining aviators remains a significant challenge,” leading them to assert that the best option for the Air Force to stop and fill in this short-fall relies on an increased focus on the accession of new aviators.
Though the USAF has placed great emphasis on growing pilot production, problems remain. Despite setting a goal of producing 1,480 pilots in FY2019, the actual number of pilots was closer to 1,300. Pilot production rates suffer due to several environmental (weather) and other longstanding factors – including a lack of available aircraft (due to inventory and/or maintenance) and flight instructors.
The Air Force has attempted to attack the pilot shortage from every angle. The USAF approached Congress with a request to fund quality of life efforts, including, but not limited to, additional retention bonuses for pilots, high-quality education for dependents and additional employment opportunities for spouses. They heavily factored pilot retention efforts into the total force budget as well, allocating over $9.5 billion to fund additional flying hours, advanced trainer programs, bringing in contractors to serve as adversaries in pilot training and the expansion of the Pilot Training Next (PTN) program across all Undergraduate Pilot Training programs. This latter issue will be explained in further detail later.
Despite every effort to mitigate and reverse the pilot shortage, the Air Force continues to worry about their ability to retain experienced pilots, who are “inspired to serve, but are nevertheless stressed by nearly two decades of sustained combat” largely precipitated by the Global War on Terror (GWOT). This exhaustion is also partly fueled by the current pilot shortage, as more mid-career rated officers, who should be cycling through a staff tour and taking a break from the high ops tempo, are shuffled back into operational flying assignments (normally filled by junior grade officers) to keep planes in the air – eventually leading to a higher propensity of mid career pilots leaving the service. At the end of 2019, the Air Force rated (pilot) community still had a surplus of roughly 750 field-grade officers (FGOs), many still serving in flying positions versus staff positions at this juncture of their career; however, the Air Force was short more than 1,700 company-grade rated officers (CGOs), largely due to budget cuts related to sequestration over the last decade. Since there are insufficient CGOs to fully man line units, FGOs are cycled back into operational assignments, adding to inevitable fatigue after a career of service thereby making retention efforts even more difficult for the USAF. In order to prevent a repeated shortfall of CGOs in the future, and the associated long-term retention issues, additional emphasis needs to be focused on developing young pilots now through the USAF pilot training pipeline. The most reliable way to plan for the future will be to surge young officers, the future of the force, through an efficient pilot training pipeline to fill as many pilot slots as needed to execute the National Defense Strategy.
UNDERGRADUATE PILOT TRAINING
USAF pilot training is conducted by Air Education and Training Command (AETC). USAF pilot candidates begin with a 6 week Initial Flight Training (IFT) in Pueblo, Colorado to assess aptitude for flight and introduce pilot candidates to the demands of military aviation and training. The majority of pilot candidates then attend Specialized Undergraduate Pilot Training (SUPT) at Columbus AFB, Mississippi, Laughlin AFB, Texas, or Vance AFB, Oklahoma (a small portion of pilots attend Euro-NATO Joint Jet Pilot Training at Shepard AFB, Texas where they are taught by officers from the USAF and the air forces of various NATO allies).
SUPT is divided into three phases:
- Academic/Ground Training
- Primary Flying Training
- teaches the basic flying fundamentals necessary to safely operate any USAF aircraft
- lays foundation for advanced phase and for future responsibilities as military offices and leaders
- and Advanced Flying Training
This training includes:
- Flying training to teach the principles and techniques used in operating advanced aircraft.
- Ground training to supplement and reinforce flying training.
- Officer development training to strengthen the graduate's leadership skills, officer qualities, and understanding of the role of the military pilot as an officer and supervisor
After the Primary phase of SUPT, student pilots are selected for one of three advanced training tracks based on needs of the USAF and their class standing:
- Airlift and Tanker
- Train in the T-1 Jayhawk
- Fighter and Bomber
- Train in the T-38 Talon
- Helicopter
- Train in the TH-1H
- Finish training at Fort Rucker, Alabama
Most USAF aircrew will also complete follow-on training in their assigned aircraft. For more information about USAF pilot training, please see here.
This analysis will look into weather observations at each of the three USAF UPT bases for the January 1, 2010 – December 31, 2019 time period to evaluate options about how to improve efficiency of the USAF UPT pipeline. Doing so will begin to expedite/increase accessions in the pilot training pipeline with the newest USAF rated officers while establishing a reliable source (and sufficient number) of new pilots to alleviate the burden of a pilot shortage for the future of the USAF.
For more information about the current USAF pilot shortage, please see here.
GUIDING QUESTIONS
- Are each base's flying days equally affected by hazardous weather conditions? Which base's flying days are most affected by hazardous weather conditions?
- Does any base experience a certain hazardous condition (e.g. icing, low ceiling, etc.) more often than other bases?
- Are there trends showing a base is commonly affected by hazardous weather at similar times each year?
- Are there any common weather factors on the dates when mishaps occurred?
- What percentage of mishaps at each base were attributed to weather-related factors?
- Does each base have similar amounts of SPECI (not routinely scheduled) reports? Could a higher number of SPECI reports indicate more unpredictable weather at a base?
- Do the bases experience similar average/min/max daily windspeeds?
- Are there patterns regarding what time of day is most affected by weather conditions at each base?
- How many more days is Vance AFB affected by runway icing conditions than Columbus AFB or Laughlin AFB?
- How do average daily total risk scores compare between the three SUPT bases?
- Are the distributions of associated risk categories similiar for all three bases?
- Is any base more affected by severe storms that may affect multiple training days consecutively?
REFERENCES
AirForceTimes Air Force: No progress in closing pilot shortfall
AirForceTimes Here’s where the Air Force’s pilot shortfall is the worst
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
RAND Corporation Understanding Demographic Differences in Undergraduate Pilot Training Attrition
RAND Corporation The Air Force Pilot Shortage: A Crisis for Operational Units?
ACRONYMS
